专访前海国际事务研究院助理院长包宏：稳定币正成为美元影响力延伸的工具，特朗普有四重目的| 祛魅稳定币

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., aiming to extend the global influence of the U.S. dollar in the digital realm [1][4]. Group 1: Motivations Behind the Stablecoin Legislation - The legislation is driven by four main considerations: personal interests of Trump, national interests of the U.S., the issue of U.S. national debt, and the promotion of digital financial infrastructure [3][4]. - Trump's personal interest is highlighted by his shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies post-2020 election, as he seeks funding through NFTs and support from the crypto community [3]. - The U.S. national interest is served by reinforcing the dominance of the dollar in the international market, with stablecoins currently holding a significant market share [3][4]. - The stablecoin market, with reserves exceeding $250 billion, is projected to potentially reach $2 trillion in the next 3-5 years, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and government interest costs [4]. - The development of stablecoins is expected to enhance blockchain technology and digital finance in the U.S., positioning the country favorably against emerging market central bank digital currencies [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Monetary System - The impact of stablecoins on the existing monetary system is expected to be gradual, with no immediate significant changes, as the current global monetary order remains dollar-centric [6]. - Long-term, stablecoins could disrupt the monetary system as their integration with real-world economies deepens [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If the regulatory framework of the "Genius Act" is effectively implemented, the risk of shadow banking may be mitigated due to the requirement for 100% reserves [7]. - However, the interconnectedness of stablecoins with cryptocurrencies poses risks, as market downturns in cryptocurrencies could lead to systemic issues [7]. - Emerging markets may face challenges from a potential "dollar-dominated + multinational corporations" model, which could threaten financial security and monetary sovereignty [9][10].