欧洲央行或将按兵不动 拉加德可能重申增长下行风险

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, as it assesses the economic risks posed by tariffs and other factors [1] Group 1: Economic Risks - The ECB is expected to pause interest rate cuts to evaluate the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - Concerns about the strong euro are suppressing price outlooks and further squeezing exporters [1] - Potential public finance issues in France may lead to new political crises [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - ECB policymakers may acknowledge an increased likelihood of rate cuts in September [1] - Morgan Stanley economists predict that ECB President Christine Lagarde will reiterate that growth risks are "tilted to the downside" in her upcoming statement [1] - The ECB is expected to keep the possibility of further rate cuts open without making a firm commitment [1]