中泰策略：如何看待近期金融板块冲高？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the financial sector has driven the A-share index higher, but the current market conditions do not favor blind chasing of high prices as the index remains in a volatile range [1][2][5]. Group 1: Financial Sector Analysis - The financial sector's recent performance is not primarily driven by expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session but rather by the significant event of the military parade on September 3 [2]. - The market should be cautious regarding expectations of policies like "restarting housing improvement," as recent meetings have not indicated large-scale stimulus measures [2][5]. - The financial sector has experienced a phase of rebound, but the current price levels do not offer favorable conditions for further investment [5]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy is positioned similarly to the "old-for-new" policies introduced last year, indicating a focus on managing market expectations rather than direct economic stimulus [3][4]. - The market response to the "anti-involution" policy may exhibit a "dual-phase" characteristic, with the first phase driven by policy expectations and the second phase potentially catalyzed by the revision of the "Anti-Unfair Competition Law" [4]. - The fundamental support for the current market driven by the "anti-involution" policy is weaker compared to last year's "old-for-new" policies, as industries like photovoltaics face significant global overcapacity and seasonal demand declines [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market is still in a volatile range, and the trend has not formed a clear breakthrough, leading to the recommendation of maintaining a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation [5][6]. - AI and computing sectors are expected to become one of the main market lines before September, while some cyclical sectors may continue to see a recovery in profits under the "anti-involution" policy [6].