Prediction: Boeing Won the F-47 Contract -- and Maybe F/A-XX as Well

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Defense has awarded Boeing the contract to develop the sixth-generation F-47 stealth fighter, marking a significant shift in defense contracts away from Lockheed Martin, which previously dominated the fifth-generation fighter market [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The F-47 contract is expected to generate between $20 billion to $50 billion in revenue for Boeing, with potential for hundreds of billions more from production [2]. - The Pentagon has requested $3.5 billion from Congress for the F-47's development, while only $74 million was requested for the competing F/A-XX program [4]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - The Pentagon's decision to focus on the F-47 indicates a strategic choice to allocate limited Defense Department funds to a single program, sidelining the F/A-XX for the time being [6]. - The competition for the F-47 contract was intense, with both Boeing and Lockheed Martin heavily investing in their prototypes prior to the contract award [5]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Navy has expressed interest in continuing development of the F/A-XX, requesting $1.4 billion in its "Unfunded Priorities List" for fiscal 2026 [8][9]. - There is a possibility that the F-47 and F/A-XX development programs could merge, allowing the Navy to utilize a tailored version of the F-47 as its new F/A-XX [10][11]. Group 4: Implications for Companies - If the merger of the F-47 and F/A-XX programs occurs, it could result in Boeing securing two contracts for the development effort of one aircraft, significantly benefiting the company [12][13]. - This situation could pose challenges for Lockheed Martin, as it may lose out on potential contracts in the sixth-generation fighter space [13].