丁爽解读2025上半年经济：财政发力支撑增长 下半年需要政策组合拳稳预期

Economic Growth Factors - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a total GDP of 66,053.6 billion yuan, indicating overall economic stability and improvement [1] - Two main factors contributed to the unexpected economic growth: early exports and proactive fiscal stimulus. The broad deficit rate was 9.0% of GDP, up from 7.1% the previous year, with a significant execution of 3.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, the highest in recent years [1][2] Investment Performance - Investment performance remains weak, with fixed asset investment growth rates declining from 4.2% in Q1 to 2.3% in Q2, contributing only 0.9 percentage points to GDP. The real estate sector has been a major drag on investment [2] - In June 2025, investment data showed pressures in the real estate sector, with declines in new construction, housing sales, and prices, alongside a slowdown in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] Policy Recommendations for Economic Stability - For the second half of 2025, a combination of short-term and long-term policies is recommended to stabilize growth. Short-term measures include ensuring full budget implementation and expanding fiscal resources for infrastructure investment and consumer subsidies [3][4] - The government is encouraged to optimize policies such as trade-in programs and to implement measures for urban village renovations and local special bonds [3] Long-term Economic Strategy - Long-term strategies should focus on removing excess manufacturing capacity while increasing service sector capacity, which is currently insufficient. This is crucial to avoid domestic deflationary pressures and trade friction due to low-priced exports [4][5] - The service sector, which constitutes about 55% of GDP, has significant growth potential compared to developed countries where it accounts for around 70%. Areas such as healthcare, finance, and tourism require further development and opening up to support high-quality economic growth [5]