参议院选举牵动日本政坛，石破茂政府经历“艰难一战”

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is likely to struggle to secure the 50 seats needed for a majority in the Japanese Senate elections, marking a potential unprecedented situation where the coalition becomes a minority in both houses for the first time since World War II [1][4][5] - The LDP and Komeito currently hold 141 seats in the Senate, with 75 non-contested seats and 66 contested seats in this election, needing to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [4][5] - The election is seen as a critical test for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who has faced significant challenges following previous electoral defeats [1][6] Group 2 - Exit polls indicate that the LDP and Komeito coalition may not secure the necessary seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to gain seats [5][6] - The rise of the far-right party "Sanjin Party," which promotes a nationalist agenda, has garnered significant attention and support, reflecting a shift towards more extreme political sentiments in Japan [1][9][10] - The political landscape is shifting, with increasing public support for nationalist and exclusionary policies, as evidenced by a survey showing 79% of voters favoring stricter measures against foreigners [9][10] Group 3 - Kishida's administration faces declining approval ratings, with a recent poll showing support at 20.8%, the lowest since taking office, indicating a potential crisis of confidence in his leadership [6][7] - The political environment may lead to a reshuffling of the ruling coalition or even a change in leadership, as historical precedents suggest that poor performance in Senate elections can lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister [7][8] - Economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and external trade challenges, are contributing to the political turmoil and dissatisfaction among voters [8][10]