【环时深度】以色列想“重塑中东”，走得通吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict in Syria, particularly in Suweida, has drawn attention due to Israel's involvement, which is perceived as part of its "New Middle East" strategy aimed at reshaping borders and alliances for security purposes [1][2][7]. Group 1: Conflict Overview - The conflict in Suweida began on July 13, triggered by the alleged kidnapping of a Druze merchant, leading to clashes between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes [2]. - By July 20, the situation had stabilized, with reports indicating a ceasefire and the deployment of security forces in the region [1][2]. - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the conflict resulted in thousands of deaths [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Demographics - The Druze population in Syria is estimated at around 700,000, primarily residing in the southern region of Suweida [4]. - The Druze have historically resisted the central government's attempts to exert control, advocating for federalism in response to the regime's push for centralization [4][5]. Group 3: External Influences and Geopolitical Dynamics - Israel's involvement in the conflict is seen as an effort to weaken Syria, with analysts suggesting that a fragmented Syria would be more beneficial for Israeli security [6][7]. - The concept of a "New Middle East" is emerging, characterized by a shift in power dynamics, with Israel and Turkey gaining strength while Iran and its allies are perceived to be weakening [10][11]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical shifts may lead to a new focus on the rivalry between Turkey and Israel, as opposed to the traditional Iran-Israel conflict [11]. - Analysts suggest that the current instability in Syria and the broader region presents opportunities for external powers to intervene in local politics [10].