智通财经网·2025-07-20 23:23Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are hovering near historical highs despite escalating tariff disputes and monetary policy debates, with Nasdaq leading a 1.6% increase and S&P 500 rising 0.7% last week [1] - 112 S&P 500 constituents are set to report quarterly earnings, with a focus on major tech companies like Alphabet, Tesla, and Chipotle [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, stating that the federal funds rate is over 1 percentage point above reasonable levels, citing limited inflation risks [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have cooled, with the probability dropping from 13% to 5% over the past month [2] Earnings Season Insights - The second-quarter earnings season began with major banks exceeding expectations, followed by strong results from streaming giant Netflix, indicating robust consumer resilience [4] - Overall earnings for S&P 500 constituents are expected to grow by 5.6% year-over-year, up from a previous estimate of 4.8% [4] - Some stocks that had surged prior to earnings reports, like Netflix, saw declines post-announcement, highlighting the challenge of meeting high expectations [4] Tech Giants and Earnings Growth - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Alphabet and Tesla, are expected to lead S&P 500 earnings growth, with a projected 14.1% increase compared to a mere 3.4% for the remaining 493 stocks [8] - There is a growing expectation that the remaining stocks will contribute more significantly to earnings growth in upcoming quarters, which is a key signal for broader market rally hopes [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of corporate commentary in the current market environment, suggesting that positive developments are already being priced in [11] - There is a call for cyclical sectors to show growth turning points to further drive market expansion [11]