华源证券：首次覆盖龙溪股份给予买入评级

Company Overview - Longxi Co., Ltd. specializes in high-margin joint bearings, maintaining a stable gross margin of over 40% for the past three years, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company has nearly 70 years of experience in the bearing industry and is one of the top three joint bearing companies globally, with a domestic market share exceeding 75% and an international market share of 15% [2][5] - Longxi's annual production capacity exceeds 20 million sets, with projected revenue from bearing products reaching 904 million yuan in 2024 and a gross margin of 40.5% [1][2] Market Position and Growth Potential - The joint bearing market in China is expected to reach 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% from 2020 to 2024, significantly higher than the overall bearing market growth rate of about 5% [2] - Longxi has broken the technological monopoly of international leaders through continuous innovation, positioning itself as the only Chinese company in the global top tier of joint bearing manufacturers [2] Technological Advancements - The company has established a high technical barrier in self-lubricating joint bearings, with PTFE fabric lining technology as its core competitive advantage [3] - Longxi has developed three key technologies: preparation of PTFE self-lubricating linings, molded linings, and precision simulation extrusion, creating a complete process chain from structural design to lining integration [3] Application in Robotics - The value of joint bearings combined with link assemblies for humanoid robots is expected to exceed 5,000 yuan per unit, with potential increases as demands for dexterity and lightweight designs grow [4] - Longxi has engaged with several humanoid robot companies, including Zhiyuan, to explore commercial opportunities in the robotics sector, with a projected market size for joint bearings and link products reaching 5 billion yuan based on an estimated shipment of 1 million humanoid robots [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 161 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 245 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.1%, 24.4%, and 22.8% [5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 57, 46, and 37 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to comparable companies' PE ratios of 84, 69, and 58 [5]