需求不佳 铝合金站稳20000元/吨一线仍有阻力

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weak demand and seasonal factors, despite tight supply of raw materials [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the main contract for aluminum alloy futures closed at 19,875 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.53% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 19,700 CNY/ton and 19,950 CNY/ton, indicating a stable yet cautious market environment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high production costs for aluminum alloy, which supports current price levels [2][3] - However, the automotive industry's "anti-involution" trend and the ongoing off-season have weakened demand, resulting in increased inventory levels for aluminum alloy [2][3] Institutional Insights - Guoxin Futures notes that while raw material prices remain high, the weak demand is expected to suppress aluminum alloy prices, making it challenging to maintain levels above 20,000 CNY/ton [3] - Donghai Futures highlights that the tight supply of scrap aluminum is causing production costs to rise, leading to losses for some recycling aluminum plants, which are now facing a loss of 41 CNY/ton [3] - The overall manufacturing sector is experiencing a lack of growth in orders, further contributing to the weak demand outlook for aluminum alloys [3]