财说|净利润同比预增超两倍，联发股份“虚胖”

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianfa Co., Ltd. (002394.SZ), is expected to report a net profit of 165 million to 185 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 235.09% to 275.71%, primarily driven by non-recurring gains and cost reductions, raising questions about the sustainability of its profit growth [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit growth is significantly influenced by non-recurring gains, which contributed approximately 60 million yuan, accounting for over 87% of the net profit increase [4]. - Excluding non-recurring gains, the company's net profit is expected to be between 110 million and 130 million yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 5.54% to 24.72% [2][4]. Industry Context - Lianfa operates primarily in the traditional textile manufacturing sector, with nearly 90% of its revenue derived from textile-related businesses, including high-end fabric and shirt production [2][6]. - The textile industry is highly sensitive to raw material prices, particularly coal, which constitutes a significant portion of production costs [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The price of coking coal has seen a notable decline, with a 29.73% drop from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 825 yuan/ton by the end of June 2025, positively impacting Lianfa's gross margin [8]. - However, the coal market is expected to stabilize, limiting further cost reductions for the company, which may affect profit growth in the second half of the year [8][12]. Business Strategy and Misconceptions - The company has been associated with the "robotics concept" due to its partnership with a state-owned fund to establish a digital technology firm focused on smart robotics, but it does not manufacture robots or related components [9][10][11]. - Lianfa emphasizes that its core business remains in textile production, with some processes utilizing automated equipment, but it does not generate revenue from robotics [11]. Growth Challenges - The company's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a downward trend observed over the past five years, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amid cyclical fluctuations in the textile industry [12]. - The decline in clothing sales and increased inventory levels reflect broader economic uncertainties and demand pressures within the textile sector [12].