Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices in the first half of 2025 due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, policy adjustments, and international market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, coal prices reached a five-year low, with thermal coal prices hitting new lows and coking coal and coke prices at an eight-year low due to an oversupply situation [2] - The price fluctuations in the first half of the year showed a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline, with prices touching a low in March and April before rebounding in May due to rising demand from thermal power generation [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand imbalance in the coal market has not changed significantly, with domestic production capacity being limited and high levels of imported coal maintaining a relatively loose supply [4] - The demand from the electricity sector is expected to increase seasonally during the summer, but the growth will be constrained by the rise of renewable energy sources, leading to overall weak demand in non-electric sectors [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be a rebound in coal prices during the summer peak demand period, the overall price center is likely to shift downward due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [5] - The coal market will continue to face pressures from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with potential challenges from domestic capacity releases and ongoing imports [5]
高供应弱需求矛盾未根本扭转 下半年煤炭价格或“旺季反弹、中枢下移”
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-21 01:01