铁矿石期货周报：淡季不淡需求韧性支撑 钢厂补库利多原料价格

Supply - Global shipments decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments increasing by 810,000 tons to 24.198 million tons [1] - The four major mining companies' shipments rose by 132,000 tons to 2.133 million tons, while shipments from other non-mainstream countries fell by 88,000 tons to 489,000 tons [1] - The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 178,200 tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons [1] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, up by 0.31% [1] - The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity reached 90.89%, an increase of 0.98% [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 60.17%, up by 0.43% [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with average daily dispatch volume rising, while steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [1] - The average daily dispatch volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory was 88.2216 million tons, a decrease of 1.5748 million tons [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract showed a strong upward trend this week, with a slight decrease in global shipment volume but an increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil [2] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the demand side saw a recovery in pig iron production, returning to over 2.4 million tons per day [2] - Steel mill profit margins remain high, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to announce a growth plan for key industries, which may support demand [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to remain strong, with strategies suggesting to buy on dips [2]