开源证券：聚酯瓶片行业供需格局改善 盈利能力有望底部回升

Core Viewpoint - The polyester bottle chip industry is experiencing an improvement in its structure, with price differentials recovering significantly due to the end of the expansion cycle and the effects of joint production cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global demand for polyester bottle chips is steadily increasing, with a projected growth from 20.04 million tons in 2015 to 34.35 million tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% [2]. - The pandemic led to a surge in demand for medical packaging and takeaway containers, resulting in a 28.9% increase in domestic polyester bottle chip demand in 2020 compared to 2019 [2]. - In 2021, China's bottle chip exports rose by 27% compared to 2020, driven by recovering downstream consumption and restocking needs [3]. - The supply side saw no significant capacity expansion from 2018 to 2021, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and a price differential spike to around 2000 CNY/ton [3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Outlook - The industry has entered a capacity expansion phase post-2022, with China's share of global polyester bottle chip capacity increasing from 33.35% in 2021 to 47.94% by 2024 [4]. - Major domestic producers include Yisheng (5.9 million tons), Sanfangxiang (5 million tons), China Resources Materials (3.3 million tons), and Wankai New Materials (3 million tons), with a combined market share of approximately 79% [4]. - The expansion phase is nearing its end, with only limited new capacities expected to come online by the second half of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Price Recovery and Profitability - Recent joint production cuts have led to a reduction in domestic polyester bottle chip capacity utilization to around 80%, contributing to a recovery in price differentials from 150-170 CNY/ton in late June to over 400 CNY/ton [5]. - The ongoing self-regulatory measures in the industry are expected to further enhance price differentials and profitability for related companies [5].