Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Hengan International's 2025 net profit forecast by 26% to 2.29 billion HKD, while introducing a new profit estimate of 2.412 billion HKD for 2026, maintaining a neutral rating and reducing the target price by 15% to 25.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 9.7% from the current stock price [1] Group 1 - The firm expects a slight decline in revenue for H1 2025, with comparable net profit (excluding foreign exchange gains and losses) anticipated to decrease by single digits, aligning with market expectations [2] - Hengan's tissue business is projected to show single-digit growth in H1 2025, driven by sales volume, strong performance in high-end products, and channel expansion, while the sanitary napkin business is expected to face pressure with a low double-digit decline [3] - The company is expected to maintain a manageable promotional effort in the sanitary napkin segment despite increased competition from domestic brands [3] Group 2 - The firm predicts that pulp prices will remain low in H1 2025, leading to manageable cost pressures, with expectations of improved gross margins for the tissue and sanitary napkin businesses due to favorable cost conditions and production scale effects [4] - The overall expense ratio is expected to rise slightly due to increased competitive pressures, although the company’s promotional spending is anticipated to remain controlled [4] - The company aims to continue driving revenue growth through product premiumization and channel diversification, with expectations for improved performance in tissue, wet wipes, and diaper segments in the latter half of the year [4]
中金：降恒安国际(01044)目标价至25.5港元 维持“中性”评级