化工龙头ETF（516220）涨超2.1%，海外供给收缩或支撑化工品价格上行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that approximately 75% of global DMC production capacity is concentrated in China, with overseas capacity growth constrained by raw materials, costs, and market factors [1] - Domestic demand for silicone is expected to maintain a high growth rate of 15.5% by 2025, while new capacity growth will slow to 3.0%, leading to a supply-demand mismatch as demand is projected to grow by 12% [1] - Current silicone prices are at historical low levels, and with Dow's capacity exit, China's export share to Europe is expected to increase, significantly boosting marginal effects, with industry prosperity and corporate profitability likely stabilizing and recovering by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (000813), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., selecting representative listed companies from the chemical raw materials, chemical products, fertilizers, and agricultural chemicals sectors to reflect the overall market performance of the chemical industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect C (012731) and Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect A (012730) [1]