华源证券：首次覆盖昂利康给予买入评级

Core Investment Logic - The impact of the national procurement of Lefuyin is gradually diminishing, and with the launch and promotion of new products, the company's performance is expected to return to a growth trajectory [1][2] - The company is firmly advancing its innovation transformation, introducing the ALK-N001 (DXd) which opens up new possibilities. ALK-N001 is a tumor-responsive prodrug designed based on the TMEA platform, which has shown significant efficacy and safety trends compared to existing first-line chemotherapy regimens in phase 3 trials of its first drug, Legu Bixin [1][3] Business Overview - Established in 2001, the company has over 20 years of experience in the pharmaceutical field, transitioning from generic to innovative drugs. It primarily engages in the R&D, production, and sales of chemical raw materials, chemical preparations, pharmaceutical excipients, and specialty intermediates [1] - The company has a significant advantage in cardiovascular preparations, oral cephalosporin raw materials, alpha-keto acid raw materials, inhalation anesthetics, anti-androgen intermediates, and plant-derived cholesterol products [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects a revenue of 1.54 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. The decline in performance is mainly due to the impact of the Lefuyin product, particularly from the eighth batch of national procurement [2] - The company anticipates a rebound in performance driven by the approval and promotion of new products, including the "light-foot" compound alpha-keto acid tablets and the cooperative product Ediguanol soft capsules [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 132 million, 170 million, and 216 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 29%, and 27% [4] New Growth Areas - The company is expanding into new fields such as plant cholesterol and animal health, aiming to create new growth drivers. The acquisition of Keri Bio in 2023 is expected to provide stable cash flow, with a projected net profit margin of 40% in 2024 [2] - The company's animal health business focuses on pet medications, with a target to double the sales of isoflurane by 2025, and numerous ongoing projects in pet medications that could become new growth points [2] Drug Development and Innovation - ALK-N001 is a tumor-responsive prodrug designed to achieve targeted delivery in the tumor microenvironment, aiming for high efficacy and low toxicity. The TMEA-SMDC platform has been validated through positive phase 3 trial results of Legu Bixin [3] - The company has reached an agreement with Affinity for the authorization of ALK-N001/QHL-1618, obtaining all rights in Greater China. ALK-N001 is expected to be a strong candidate for tumor treatment due to its enhanced cytotoxicity [3]