瑞银：升老铺黄金目标价至980港元 评级“中性”

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Laopu Gold is expected to announce significant year-on-year increases in revenue, net profit, and adjusted net profit for the first half of the year, with respective growth rates of 2.65 times, 2.85 times, and 2.96 times, reaching 12.9 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.4 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to increase to 12.9 billion RMB, representing a 2.65 times year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit is expected to reach 2.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.85 times increase compared to the previous year [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at 2.4 billion RMB, which is a 2.96 times increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS believes that the market's expectation for Laopu Gold's full-year net profit of 5.5 billion RMB is still too high, indicating potential downside risks if gold prices slow or stagnate [1] - The company plans to open 4 new stores in the first half and 5 in the second half of the year, with improved quality compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Store Performance and Valuation - The new high-end stores are estimated to have a production capacity 2 to 4 times that of regular stores, which may enhance overall performance [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Laopu Gold from 900 HKD to 980 HKD, based on discounted cash flow valuation, corresponding to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 33 times and 25 times for the next two years [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 25% to 35% [1]