news flash·2025-07-21 05:21Core Viewpoint - HSBC's multiverse model suggests that the reasonable valuation for USD/JPY is between 146 and 152, but warns that various political, macroeconomic, and policy changes could trigger a rebound in the yen [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yen Rebound - Key factors for potential yen appreciation include a US-Japan trade agreement, the Federal Reserve restarting easing policies, or direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan [1] - A US-Japan trade agreement with lower-than-expected tariffs could alleviate fiscal concerns and reignite expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, providing upward potential for the yen [1] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut in September also poses an upside risk for the yen [1] Group 2: Intervention Thresholds - If the USD/JPY exchange rate falls between 155 and 160, it may trigger foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance [1] - Due to US scrutiny over currency manipulation, the threshold for such intervention may have been lowered [1]