特朗普关税威胁下欧央行按兵不动，PMI与Ifo指数将揭晓或定调后续政策

Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring economic reports this week as they prepare for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision meeting on Thursday, which will be crucial for assessing the direction of monetary policy amid trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1] - The data released this week is unlikely to alter the ECB's decision to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in a year, but it will provide clues on whether further cuts are needed, either in September or later [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist for Europe, Jari Stein, noted that while the data itself may not decide on rate cuts, signs of economic slowdown would strengthen the case for further easing [4] Group 2 - The quarterly bank lending survey released on Tuesday is particularly significant as it reflects the impact of interest rate adjustments following Trump's tax policy announcement in April [4] - HSBC economist Fabio Balboni believes the survey will reveal how tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties affect policy transmission, with improvements in credit conditions under external pressures reinforcing the notion of "credit easing" [6] - Bloomberg's economic forecast suggests that the ECB is in a wait-and-see mode, with potential rate cuts expected in September and December, while the policy statement after the July 24 meeting is likely to remain consistent with June's, allowing for rate cuts without making commitments [6] Group 3 - There are differing views among ECB council members regarding the economic outlook, with some warning of growth obstacles and low inflation, while others emphasize the resilience of businesses and households [6] - The first quarter's economic performance exceeded expectations, but the ECB's vice president predicts stagnation in growth for the second and third quarters [6] - The key issue is whether public spending in Germany and other parts of Europe can offset the impacts of tariff uncertainties and euro appreciation on competitiveness [9]