“反内卷”政策预期强化催生底部金属机遇

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69% to 3534.48 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.09% to 4058.55 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 1.82%, reaching 5294.21 points [1][2]. Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes compared to the previous week were as follows: Industrial metals +1.00%, Precious metals +1.61%, Minor metals +4.45%, Energy metals +3.31%, and New metal materials +0.19% [1][2]. Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.15%), Aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.80%), Zinc at 22,295 CNY/ton (-0.42%), Lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-1.67%), Nickel at 120,500 CNY/ton (-0.57%), and Tin at 264,540 CNY/ton (-0.41%) [3]. - On the London Metal Exchange, the prices were: Copper at 9,795 USD/ton (+1.39%), Aluminum at 2,638 USD/ton (+1.34%), Zinc at 2,824 USD/ton (+3.12%), Lead at 2,012 USD/ton (-0.49%), Nickel at 15,245 USD/ton (+0.31%), and Tin at 33,355 USD/ton (-0.87%) [3]. - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 777.02 CNY/gram (+0.50%) and 9,273 CNY/kilogram (+2.84%), respectively [3]. - The prices for lithium carbonate and other lithium products showed significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 66,000 CNY/ton (+3.94%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 65,000 CNY/ton (+4.00%) [3]. Policy Impact - The implementation of the revised Mineral Resources Law in China has led to stricter management and approval requirements for mining operations, affecting lithium mining activities. Local authorities have mandated that certain lithium mines complete resource verification reports by September 30 [4][5]. - The uncertainty in domestic lithium mining policies has caused supply-side disruptions, contributing to a significant rebound in lithium carbonate prices [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Co., due to the rebound in lithium prices [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth plan for key industries, including nonferrous metals, which will focus on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated capacity. Companies like China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Yunnan Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals are highlighted for potential investment opportunities [5].