Group 1 - Helen Jewell, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's EMEA Fundamental Equity Investment team, believes that the European corporate earnings outlook has appropriately reflected tariff risks, suggesting that the upward trend in European stock markets will continue in the absence of trade shocks [1] - Jewell noted that earnings data has already declined, indicating that the market is not complacent, and as long as European exporters continue to perform, there is room for further market gains [1] - In contrast, Goldman Sachs strategists warned that the current optimistic sentiment in the stock market may be overstated due to trade uncertainties ahead of the implementation of US tariffs on August 1 [1] Group 2 - The Stoxx Europe 600 index reached a low on April 9, following the suspension of severe tariff measures by US President Donald Trump, and has since risen by 16% [4] - However, analysts have been downgrading corporate earnings expectations since mid-March, and the stock market's upward momentum has slowed as investors assess the impact of the trade war on consumer demand [4] - According to Bloomberg Intelligence, analysts expect a 4.8% decline in earnings for companies in the MSCI Europe index for the second quarter, marking the largest year-over-year drop since early 2024 [4] - Jewell cautioned that if a company makes even a slight misstep, there is little room for recovery, indicating a potentially more fragile market [4] - Due to the lack of finalized trade agreements, Jewell advised investors against over-investing in US or European stocks, instead suggesting a focus on themes such as artificial intelligence and sustainable energy [4]
贝莱德:企业盈利前景已恰当反映关税风险 欧股有望持续上涨