氧化铝大涨！后市怎么看？
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-07-21 10:15

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a significant price rebound due to supply-side contraction expectations, with futures prices rising over 8% in a single day, reflecting a broader trend of increasing market optimism [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 21, the main aluminum oxide futures contract surged by 8.39%, reaching 3386 yuan/ton, marking a monthly increase of over 20% [2]. - The northern market saw a transaction of 13,000 tons of aluminum oxide last week, with a weighted average price of 3175 yuan/ton, up by 45 yuan/ton from the previous week [2]. - The southern market transactions were primarily between aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum plants, with prices ranging from 3270 to 3350 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent market rumors regarding the "capacity elimination expectations" and a significant drop in delivery warehouse inventories have heightened market sentiment, leading to increased inquiries and a strong performance in the spot market [3]. - The expectation of supply-side tightening, particularly for aluminum oxide, is fueled by upcoming government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [3][4]. - Since June, the aluminum oxide spot market has been on a gradual upward trend, with a weighted average price of 3226 yuan/ton in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.18% [4]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability Analysis - In June, the average total cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16165 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of 4372 yuan/ton, indicating a significant profitability level not seen in three years [4][5]. - The rising aluminum oxide prices have increased its proportion in the total cost of electrolytic aluminum to 38%, while electricity and anode costs have decreased [5]. - The industry is expected to maintain high profitability levels, with low costs becoming the norm, while future aluminum oxide prices may experience narrow fluctuations due to increasing supply and stable demand [5][6].