Group 1 - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for two consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The economic data for Q2 indicates a stable yet slightly strong economic performance, reducing the necessity for a downward adjustment of LPR in the short term [1][2] - Banks lack sufficient motivation to lower LPR quotes due to tax payments in July and liquidity shortages, despite some net injection through reverse repos [1] Group 2 - Future expectations suggest that external shocks like tariffs will ease, while domestic credit recovery remains slow, leading to continued loose liquidity operations by the central bank [2] - In the short term, LPR quotes are expected to remain stable, but there may be room for downward adjustments in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and efforts to boost domestic demand [2] - The impact of external fluctuations on exports is anticipated to manifest in the second half, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts and a subsequent decrease in both LPR terms [2]
宏观经济运行稳健、银行负债压力仍存 LPR维持不变符合预期
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-07-21 12:09