美国高额关税生效大限临近 避险需求压低美债收益率

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets has increased due to the approaching deadline of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 4 basis points to 4.38%, marking the lowest level since July 11 [1] - Ongoing trade negotiations between U.S. and EU officials have not yielded breakthroughs, raising the risk of a 30% tariff potentially taking effect next month [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond also fell by 4 basis points to 4.95%, indicating a significant movement in longer-term bonds [1] - Short-term Treasury yields are supported as traders seek to hedge against the possibility of President Trump dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a strategy referred to as "Powell hedge" [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 3.84%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] Group 3 - The logic behind the "Powell hedge" strategy is that if a new Fed chair aligns more with Trump's rate-cutting demands, short-term bond yields may decline due to expectations of policy easing [3] - Concerns over the potential erosion of central bank independence could elevate long-term inflation expectations, thereby increasing long-term bond yields [3] - The swap market indicates that a rate cut is highly unlikely next week, with traders expecting a total reduction of 46 basis points for the remainder of the year, showing little change from the previous week [3]