Mattel Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?

Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 16 cents, reflecting a 15.8% decline from the previous year [1][2] - Revenue is projected at nearly $1.08 billion, indicating a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Factors Influencing Q2 2025 Results - The second-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from strong entertainment tie-ins and brand traction in action figures, vehicles, and games, with product launches related to Jurassic World Rebirth and the Minecraft movie acting as revenue drivers [3] - Early sell-through of licensed products, particularly in action figures, and growth in core brands like Hot Wheels and UNO are expected to enhance revenue, supported by expanded collector sets and innovations in digital gaming [4] Challenges and Constraints - Retailers may have adopted cautious ordering behavior due to evolving trade policies and uncertain consumer demand, which could limit growth potential [5] - Input cost inflation, ongoing supply chain adjustments, and cautious retail promotion strategies are likely to exert moderate pressure on Mattel's margins [6] - The company is facing challenges in the infant and toddler segments, which may have constrained growth in the preschool category [5] Margin and Cost Considerations - Mattel's margins are expected to be impacted by elevated labor and logistics expenses, despite the company's efforts to achieve structural cost savings through its Optimizing for Profitable Growth initiative [6][7] - Preparatory pricing and inventory management efforts may have temporarily constrained margin growth in the second quarter [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Mattel, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -1.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8][10]