（国际观察）日本执政党参议院选举惨败，石破政权何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The ruling coalition of Japan, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, suffered a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, failing to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet, which poses significant challenges for Prime Minister Kishida's administration [1][2]. Election Results - The House of Councillors has a total of 248 seats, with 125 up for election this time. The LDP and Komeito needed to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority, but they only secured 47 seats [2]. - This marks the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 that it has failed to achieve a majority in both houses of the National Diet, resulting in a "historic defeat" [2]. Reasons for Defeat - Analysts attribute the ruling coalition's poor performance to several factors, including: - Lackluster economic and livelihood performance under Kishida's administration, with rising prices of essential goods like rice increasing public pressure [2]. - Stalemate in Japan-U.S. trade negotiations, with no substantial outcomes after seven rounds of ministerial talks [2]. - Ongoing impacts of the LDP's "dark money" scandal, which have eroded public trust in the party [2]. Public Support and Political Climate - Pre-election polls indicated Kishida's cabinet support rate had dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office. A support rate below 30% is considered dangerous, and falling below 20% suggests a risk of resignation [2]. - Over 40% of respondents cited "lack of leadership" and "policy failures" as reasons for not supporting Kishida's cabinet [2]. Impact of Opposition Parties - The rise of the populist conservative party, which has strong anti-immigration sentiments and promotes "Japan first" policies, has also diverted votes from the LDP [3]. Future of Kishida's Administration - Following the election defeat, calls for Kishida's resignation within the LDP have intensified, with prominent figures like former Prime Minister Aso Taro stating that Kishida should not continue in power [3]. - Kishida expressed his intention to remain in office and focus on the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, emphasizing the importance of not allowing government operations to stagnate [3]. - Analysts suggest that Kishida's continued leadership may help maintain continuity in U.S.-Japan trade talks, especially with impending tariff measures set to begin on August 1 [3]. Political Uncertainty Ahead - The ruling coalition's loss of control in both houses significantly weakens its governing foundation, leading to greater challenges in policy implementation and increased reliance on opposition parties [4]. - Kishida may face more constraints in negotiations with the U.S. due to the need to consider domestic political dynamics, which could limit his flexibility and autonomy [4].