铁矿石供需基本平衡 关注政策驱动

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is gradually accepting the TACO trade, where investors bet on a rebound in the stock market amid Trump's tariff threats, leading to increased risk appetite and positive valuation for commodities as expectations for Fed rate cuts rise [1] - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are proactively supporting the market, with expectations for incremental policies remaining strong, positively impacting iron ore prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The expected increase in shipments from the four major mining companies for 2025 has been adjusted down to 5.5 million tons, significantly lower than the initial market expectations of 20-25 million tons [2] - Brazilian Vale's shipment increase is approximately 5 million tons, while Australian Rio Tinto is expected to see a reduction of about 5 million tons due to adverse weather conditions [2] - Domestic iron ore production is declining due to price drops and increased maintenance, with a reported 9.76% year-on-year decrease in iron concentrate production in May [4] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for iron ore remains strong, supported by high steel production and infrastructure investments, with a 3.27% year-on-year increase in pig iron production from January to May [5] - The overall pig iron production for the first half of the year is projected to be around 84.3 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline expected [5] Group 4: Inventory Trends - Domestic ports have been reducing inventories due to supply contractions and resilient demand, with expectations for a slight accumulation of iron ore inventory to around 15 million tons by the end of the year [6] - The forecast for Dalian iron ore futures prices is set between 690 RMB/ton and 790 RMB/ton, corresponding to external prices of 91 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton [6]