Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-07-22 01:52Supply Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total output of five major steel products reached 8.6819 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.79% [2] - The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.27 percentage points [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 51.79%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.81 percentage points [2] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rose to 60.2%, stimulating some steel mills to resume production [2] Demand Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total consumption of five major steel products was 8.7011 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.28% [2] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,200 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.45% [2] - In June, the total export volume of steel reached 9.678 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 8.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] - The cumulative export volume in June was 58.1466 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 19.97% and a year-on-year increase of 9.22% [2] - Except for rebar, the consumption of other varieties showed a slight increase, driven by improved macro expectations and increased demand in the terminal manufacturing sector [2] Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 9.2211 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.80% [3] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.1555 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.43% [3] - The inventory pressure decreased as inventory shifted from steel mills to downstream [3] Cost Side - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 759.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [4] - The price for Indian iron ore (61% Fe) at Qingdao Port was 715.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% [4] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,372.81 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.93% [5] - The comprehensive absolute price index for foundry pig iron was 2,788.8 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [5] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,239.54 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.22% [5] Price Side - As of July 18, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,462.31 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99%, a month-on-month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.43% [5] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,317.6 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.73% [5] - The global steel price index was 205.6 points as of July 11, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.59%, a month-on-month increase of 0.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68% [5] - Steel prices are expected to rise in the off-season due to the anticipated "anti-involution" policy and the rebound in raw material prices [5] Industry News - On July 18, 2025, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of industry and information technology in the first half of 2025, revealing that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [6] - The specific work plans will be released in the near future, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Investment Suggestions - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost the valuation of the sector [6] - The industry is expected to remain stable supported by the stabilization of real estate and construction, as well as a positive outlook for manufacturing [6] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration, structural adjustments in output, and high-quality product development as part of its transformation [6] - Recommended companies include industry leaders with product structure advantages and scale effects, such as Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Baosteel (600019.SH) [6] - Special steel companies with high barriers and high value-added products, such as Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), are also recommended [6]