Workflow
中金公司:首予中国宏桥(01378)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价 23.62 港元
智通财经网·2025-07-22 01:50

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) is rated "outperform" by CICC with a target price of HKD 23.62, supported by strong performance certainty from its integrated layout and more stable valuation by 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the aluminum industry, being the second-largest producer of electrolytic aluminum and alumina globally, with a fully integrated supply chain from power to aluminum processing and recycling [2] - The company emphasizes high-quality green development, focusing on optimizing energy structure, promoting green energy projects, and developing a circular economy to achieve carbon neutrality [2] Group 2: Operational Strategy - High self-sufficiency in raw materials effectively reduces costs, with a planned annual production capacity of approximately 60 million tons of bauxite in Guinea and 1.75 million and 2 million tons of alumina in Shandong and Indonesia, respectively [2] - The "North Aluminum South Move" strategy aims to replicate industrial cluster advantages and enhance green electricity aluminum production, with plans to relocate approximately 3 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with expectations for the aluminum sector to benefit from favorable fiscal and monetary policies, potentially raising aluminum prices [2] - The global supply vulnerability of bauxite is increasing, which benefits companies with high resource self-sufficiency [2] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company exhibits significant profit and valuation elasticity, with a high capacity-to-market value ratio compared to peers in the electrolytic aluminum sector [3] - High self-sufficiency in bauxite and alumina, exceeding 100%, enhances the company's resilience against raw material price fluctuations [3] - The company offers high dividend and yield rates, projected at 62% and 8.9% for 2024, respectively [3] - The dual approach of advancing both primary and recycled aluminum production is expected to yield higher product premiums in the future [3] Group 5: Investment Catalysts - Potential catalysts include unexpected increases in aluminum prices and enhanced cost advantages for green electricity aluminum under carbon neutrality policies [3]