多重利好因素共振 白银短期动能转强

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have shown strong upward momentum since early April, supported by multiple favorable factors, including trade uncertainties and monetary policy expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global trade partners has created market uncertainty, providing strong support for silver [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-EU trade negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which enhances silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market anticipates a 59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further boosting silver prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - A weak U.S. dollar has reduced the purchasing cost of silver, attracting buyers [3]. - Ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Recent global manufacturing data indicates a gradual recovery in industrial activity, positively impacting silver's industrial demand, particularly in Asia's tech manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's price action has shown a bullish pattern, with significant support levels identified at $38.00 and $37.50, while resistance is noted at $39.00 and $39.13 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached around 70, indicating strong buying momentum, although it is in the overbought territory [4]. - A breakout above the resistance zone of $38.80-$39.00 could lead to further upward movement towards the July 14 high of $39.13 [4].