7月荐书 | 周期罗盘 复利长坡

Group 1 - The core principle of investment is to establish the mindset of "buying businesses as an owner" and to evaluate their moat and cash flow over a ten-year horizon [1] - Understanding the eternal rhythm of wealth creation involves recognizing cycles and the impact of monetary illusions on time value [1] - A comprehensive framework that integrates micro business value, medium-term cycle positioning, and macro monetary environment is essential for rational decision-making in volatile markets [1] Group 2 - The book "The Way: Q&A with Duan Yongping" provides over 200 replicable thinking models covering asset allocation, business selection, and life strategy [3] - A good business model should not enter a low-margin period, as low margins indicate poor business models and minimal product differentiation [3] - Entrepreneurs should engage in ventures they are passionate about, as genuine interest can drive success [4] Group 3 - "Cycles, Valuation, and Human Nature" illustrates that asset price fluctuations are influenced by human emotions, with valuation anchors shifting due to greed and fear [6] - Identifying extreme emotional valuation misalignments is crucial for successful investment strategies, rather than merely predicting market turning points [6] Group 4 - Economic recovery can be assessed by understanding the reasons behind economic downturns and recognizing the role of inventory levels and downstream demand in driving recovery [7] - The development of macroeconomics since the 1970s emphasizes the importance of establishing a micro foundation to address economic fluctuations more rigorously [8] Group 5 - "Lessons from Inflation" discusses the psychological dynamics between central banks, governments, and markets, highlighting that policy errors and greed are the true culprits of inflation [10] - The book emphasizes that inflation creates unfairness, disproportionately affecting those with limited financial resources while benefiting those with pricing power [12][13]