高贝塔股拥挤度飙至历史峰值!小摩警示：此轮行情无基本面支撑，回调风险迫近

Group 1 - The current market's enthusiasm for high beta stocks has reached a quantifiable historical peak, indicating potential short-term market risks [1][2] - High beta stocks, which typically have a beta coefficient greater than 1.0, offer higher potential returns but also come with greater risks [1] - The level of crowding in high beta stocks has reached the 100th percentile, a level only seen during extreme market conditions such as the dot-com bubble and post-financial crisis [1] Group 2 - The recent high beta market trend is driven by multiple factors, including pricing of a "Goldilocks" scenario, tariff policy effects, and institutional investors' pursuit of high-leverage speculative targets [1] - High beta funds have seen a continuous reduction in short positions, while previously crowded defensive sectors have shifted aggressively [1] - The crowding in high beta stocks surged from the 25th percentile to the 100th percentile within three months, marking the fastest increase in thirty years, driven by sentiment reversal and technical factors rather than macroeconomic improvements [1] Group 3 - Despite optimistic market expectations, the current high beta rally lacks support from the business cycle recovery and significant monetary or fiscal policy easing, differing fundamentally from post-global financial crisis or pandemic market environments [2] - The highest beta stocks in the S&P 500 include technology growth stocks like Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), Coinbase (COIN.US), and Palantir (PLTR.US), as well as semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) [2] - Without substantial fundamental and policy support, the current high beta rally may not be sustainable, and accumulated complacency in the market could pose risks for short-term corrections [2]