智通财经网·2025-07-22 03:28Core Viewpoint - The competition in the retail market will return to efficiency comparisons across various segments, similar to e-commerce, where only players capable of driving efficiency transformations can disrupt market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Instant retail is defined as online immediate ordering and offline immediate fulfillment, relying on local retail supply to meet local instant demand [1] - The demand for instant retail primarily stems from the shift of offline scenarios, with the market size expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% over the past five years [1] - The long-term market potential for instant retail is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, potentially leading to a slowdown or negative growth for some e-commerce platforms [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Instant retail includes platform and self-operated models, with platform models accounting for 60%-70% of market share, where Meituan maintains a leading position [2] - The three key elements of instant retail are instant demand (users & traffic), instant delivery (fulfillment), and local supply [2] - The current competition focuses on user acquisition through subsidies and traffic advantages, but the long-term competition will shift towards the supply side [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan has significant advantages in organizational capability, user operation, supply chain coverage, and delivery efficiency, positioning it well for continued leadership in the instant retail market [1] - Alibaba has demonstrated stronger organizational capabilities in this round of competition, leveraging its financial and user traffic advantages, but has yet to implement disruptive strategies in food delivery and instant retail [1][2] - JD Group is still in the construction phase regarding fulfillment and supply, but long-term profitability is expected from instant retail, food delivery, and corresponding supply chain layouts [1] Group 4: Future Projections - Meituan's flash purchase gross transaction value (GTV) is expected to approach 1.1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing 18.6 billion yuan in profit [3] - Alibaba's food delivery, instant retail, and e-commerce cross-selling are projected to generate nearly 1 trillion yuan in GMV, but with limited profit contribution [3] - JD's future food delivery, instant retail, and supply chain layouts are anticipated to achieve overall profitability [3]