货币政策处于不确定时期 伦敦银呈上升趋势

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are influenced by rising geopolitical risks and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, with recent trading showing profit-taking near multi-year highs [1][3] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On July 21, London silver closed at $38.92 per ounce, up $0.75 or 1.97%, with a daily high of $39.05 and a low of $38.06 [1] - The silver ETF holdings increased to 15,005.79 tons as of July 21, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - Last week, silver prices closed around $38.16, down 0.62% from the 14-year high of $39.13, reflecting a balance between geopolitical risks and mixed signals from the Fed [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable around 4.42%, indicating market confidence in a dovish policy shift later this year [3] - The market anticipates a 45 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with September seen as a likely starting point for rate cuts [3] - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve's independence may support demand for precious metals, including silver [3] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar and electronics sectors, is supporting physical silver consumption [3] - The fundamental outlook for silver remains strong, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and limited upside for the dollar [3] - Silver prices may benefit from policy-driven support and favorable conditions in the real economy, especially if U.S. economic data remains weak [3]