Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-07-22 05:16Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing urgent capacity clearance, with recent policies emphasizing the need for orderly exit of backward production capacity [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The PV industry chain has seen a significant increase in spot prices, with silicon material and silicon wafer prices rising over 10% within a week, and full-size silicon wafers increasing by over 13% [1] - The capital market responded positively, with the main contract for polysilicon reaching a historical high, showing a cumulative increase of 42% since June 25 [1] - Despite the price increases, the fundamental support for polysilicon prices remains weak, with supply and demand not having materially improved [1][2] Group 2: Company Performance - Many PV manufacturers reported collective losses in the first half of the year, although some companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar showed significant reductions in losses in Q2 [2] - Longi Green Energy expects a loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half, with a maximum loss of approximately 1.37 billion yuan in Q2, indicating improved internal management and cost reductions [2][3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The industry is currently in a phase of market speculation, with a need for convincing data to validate the effectiveness of production cuts [2][3] - Key indicators for assessing the effectiveness of production cuts include the effective reduction of silicon material inventory, maintaining low operating rates, and the permanent exit of inefficient production capacity [3] - The PV industry has been in continuous losses for seven quarters, indicating a pressing need for self-correction and capacity clearance [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see the effects of production cuts by Q4 at the latest, with a critical need for decisive action to avoid a resurgence of outdated capacity [4] - The outcome of the production cuts will determine whether Chinese PV giants can maintain their position in the global green energy revolution or be overwhelmed by excess capacity [4]