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短期内“反内卷”预期主导市场 丙烯上市首日走高
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-22 06:12

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a positive trend, with propylene futures main contract opening at 6550.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6708.0 CNY, reflecting a 3.10% increase [1] - Short-term fundamentals for propylene remain weak due to increased production from the resumption of operations at facilities like Zhuhua, while downstream profits are under pressure and demand is in a seasonal lull, leading to insufficient raw material replenishment [1] - Despite the weak fundamentals, the propylene market in Shandong is at a low absolute price, providing some support at the bottom of the market, with the PP processing fee at a relatively low level of 350-450 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The short-term market is influenced by expectations of "anti-involution," with the cost side of crude oil and coal remaining strong during the consumption peak, and the third quarter being a peak consumption season for downstream chemical products [2] - Propylene prices are expected to be supported at the bottom, with a forecast of price fluctuations between 6200 and 7000 CNY, suggesting opportunities for high selling and low buying strategies [2] - The PDH method for producing propylene is currently profitable, but reliance on imported propane means that any increase in tariffs could significantly impact companies dependent on propane imports [2]