ITS的出口降幅有所缩小 棕榈油追多谨慎对待

Group 1: Market Overview - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecasts that crude palm oil prices will fluctuate between 4100 to 4300 ringgit per ton in the coming month, driven by strong soybean oil market and festive demand in India [1] - As of July 18, Malaysia's palm oil commercial inventory reached 591,400 tons, an increase of 28,400 tons (5.04%) from the previous week, and up 112,500 tons (23.49%) year-on-year from 478,900 tons [1] - From July 1-20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.03% month-on-month, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, resulting in a production increase of 6.19% compared to the same period last month [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures reports that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from July 1-20 decreased by 3.5% and 7.3% according to ITS and AmSpec data respectively, indicating a divergence in export trends that requires further monitoring [2] - The long-term policies in the U.S. and Indonesia favor oilseeds, with expectations of a short-term strong fluctuation in domestic oil prices, suggesting a support level for palm oil at around 8500 [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that the export and production data for Malaysian palm oil in the first half of the month is bearish, but Indonesia's commitment to achieving B40 and testing B50 has alleviated market concerns, positively impacting international palm oil prices [3]