银河期货：关税博弈加剧 贵金属易涨难跌

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 21, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 784.74 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.63% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 784.70 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 787.80 CNY and a low of 784.20 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - EU diplomats are exploring broader potential countermeasures against U.S. tariffs but prioritize negotiations with the U.S. [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed a focus on high-quality deals rather than completing transactions by August 1, indicating a desire to avoid conflict with Europe [1] - Indonesia's 19% U.S. tariff may take effect before August 1, depending on a joint statement [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's website indicates a 97.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - The imminent implementation of reciprocal tariffs is intensifying economic negotiations, leading to renewed market anxiety [4] - Ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell is contributing to market unease and may soften expectations for sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain an upward trend amid this uncertainty [4]