【财经分析】欧洲央行货币政策会议前瞻 降息或按下“暂停键”

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming monetary policy meeting due to ongoing trade uncertainties with the United States and a sufficient easing space, despite having lowered key rates eight times since June of last year [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB has reduced its deposit rate to 2% and is likely to keep rates unchanged at the July 24 meeting, with market analysts estimating a probability of over 90% for this outcome [1][2]. - Analysts believe that the ECB will refrain from making significant comments regarding the potential impact of the EU-US trade negotiations on economic growth or inflation during the meeting [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone inflation has returned to the ECB's target level of 2%, with predictions that it will stabilize at this rate for the year [4]. - The manufacturing sector in the Eurozone has shown signs of recovery, with factory output increasing for four consecutive months and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching its highest level since August 2022 at 49.5 [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cuts - Although the ECB is not expected to cut rates in the immediate future, analysts suggest that it may consider rate cuts later in the year to prevent the euro from appreciating excessively [5]. - The ECB is concerned about the rapid appreciation of the euro, which could complicate economic conditions if it continues to rise significantly [5][6]. - The potential for a rate cut in September is being discussed, particularly if a trade agreement is reached between the US and EU, which could further strengthen the euro [6].