智通财经网·2025-07-22 09:02Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates stability in the North American SaaS industry for Q2, but limited potential for upward guidance revisions, which restricts sentiment recovery in the sector [1] SaaS Industry Overview - SaaS stocks have significantly underperformed compared to the broader software industry year-to-date, primarily due to market concerns over AI substitution risks and structural growth slowdown [1] - The EV/S multiple for the next 12 months has compressed by approximately 29%, from 5.8x to 4.5x, while revenue expectations for the next 12 months have only been adjusted down by about 2% [1] - Market expectations for Q2 earnings reports in the SaaS sector are low, and seasonal weakness lacks positive catalysts, making it difficult to overturn bearish sentiment [1][2] CIO Survey Insights - CIO confidence in overall IT budgets has weakened, with the ratio of CIOs expecting to increase budgets dropping to 0.7 from 0.8 in Q1, indicating potential downward risks for enterprise IT budgets in 2025 [2] - Despite macro uncertainties, the survey shows that cyclical pressures on front-end SaaS spending are easing, and investments in generative AI are increasing [2] - The only catalyst that could overturn negative expectations regarding generative AI's impact on software spending during Q2 earnings releases would be upward guidance revisions [2] Company-Specific Insights - Wix.com: Valuation is not high, with a conservative outlook for H2; however, accelerated new user growth and new product cycles (Wix Studio, AI integration) are positive factors. Rating: "Overweight," Target Price: $207, representing a 34% upside from the July 21 closing price of $153.96 [3] - HubSpot: Channel surveys indicate Q2 performance similar to Q1; despite valuation compression, several growth levers could drive mid-term growth. Rating: "Overweight," Target Price: $752, indicating a 38% upside from the July 21 closing price of $546.64 [3] - Klaviyo: Conservative Q2 guidance, but healthy e-commerce demand and small business spending data suggest potential for exceeding market expectations. Rating: "Hold," Target Price: $40, reflecting a 23% upside from the July 21 closing price of $32.51 [3] - Amplitude: Expansion of product offerings is expected to enhance market share, and generative AI may accelerate digital product creation, potentially improving market exposure. Rating: "Hold," Target Price: $12, indicating a 5% downside from the July 21 closing price of $12.62 [4]