Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-07-22 09:31Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Cement, as a pioneer in the internationalization and diversification of China's cement industry, demonstrates resilience through overseas expansion and aggregate business growth, with a projected net profit increase of over 50% in the first half of 2025, indicating the initial success of its "anti-involution" strategy [1] Group 1: Domestic Challenges - Despite short-term price increases due to "anti-involution" policies, Huaxin Cement's domestic core business is weakening, with a projected 1.64% decline in core cement business revenue for 2024 and a drop in gross margin to 23.75%, alongside a 9.46 percentage point decrease in net margin [2] - The decline is rooted in a collapse in demand driven by deep adjustments in the real estate sector and delays in infrastructure projects, leading to a normalization of "moderate decline" in cement demand [2] - The industry faces overcapacity issues, with the national cement industry recording its first overall loss in the new century in 2024, while Huaxin has managed to stabilize through cost control, but remains under pressure from low-price competition [2] Group 2: Diversification Efforts - To mitigate risks, Huaxin is focusing on aggregates, concrete, and environmental protection as a "second growth curve," but these new businesses are not yet robust enough to support the company [2] - The aggregate business, with a high gross margin of 47.92%, contributed only 16.49% to total revenue in 2024, and while its sales growth outpaced cement, the concrete business suffered from declining margins due to weak downstream real estate [2] - The extension of the industrial chain has revealed coordination shortcomings, as the differing production processes of aggregates and cement lead to inefficiencies in resource allocation [2] Group 3: Capital Allocation and Financial Pressure - In 2025, capital expenditures of 13.3 billion yuan will be primarily directed towards overseas acquisitions and aggregate investments, sidelining upgrades in the cement main business, raising concerns that the transformation may become a financial game of "robbing Peter to pay Paul" if new businesses do not scale quickly [3] - Huaxin's overseas business is a significant highlight, with a 47% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024 and a production capacity exceeding 25 million tons per year across 18 countries, but this growth comes with risks [4] - Challenges include a lack of localization capabilities, frequent cultural conflicts, and supply chain management issues, as seen in the costly and time-consuming upgrades of old factories in South Africa [4] - The long return cycle of investments, such as the $838 million acquisition of Nigerian cement assets, requires sustained financial support, with local market development taking time before benefits are realized [4] Group 4: Financial Health Concerns - Aggressive expansion is eroding financial safety, with accounts receivable surging while operating cash flow declines year-on-year, resulting in significant profits being tied up on the balance sheet [5] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To address its challenges, Huaxin Cement needs to rebalance its ambitions between scale and survival by focusing on three dimensions: - Enhancing synergy between new and old businesses by geographically binding aggregate, concrete, and cement production to create an integrated regional supply chain, reducing logistics and management friction costs [6] - Shifting overseas expansion from heavy asset factory construction to technology output and management outsourcing to mitigate capital risk [6] - Implementing defensive financial strategies by strictly controlling accounts receivable periods, establishing foreign exchange hedging mechanisms, and adopting phased investment approaches instead of one-time acquisition payments to maintain cash flow flexibility [6]