前美联储高级经济学家：给美联储“立储”幼稚，也不会改变鲍威尔任期结束前路径|专访

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a lack of understanding and respect for the Federal Reserve's operations and independence [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Federal Reserve needs a comprehensive review to assess its success, indicating dissatisfaction with its inflation management [1]. - Congressman Anna Paulina Luna has accused Powell of perjury, seeking criminal charges against him, amidst ongoing pressure from Trump and allies for Powell to resign [1][4]. - The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the lavish nature of the Federal Reserve building renovation, suggesting it as a justification for Powell's potential dismissal [5]. Group 2: Potential Successors and Political Dynamics - Bessent is considered a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with 26% of fund managers in a recent survey believing he will be appointed [4]. - Other potential candidates include former Fed Governor Walsh (17%), Fed Governor Waller (14%), and NEC Director Hassett (7%) [4][8]. - Trump's strategy of establishing a "shadow Fed Chair" to influence Powell is viewed as naive and unlikely to change Powell's role before his term ends in 2026 [2][9]. Group 3: Challenges in Dismissing Powell - Dismissing Powell is legally complicated, and Trump may have been advised against it due to potential damage to the U.S. economic system [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates, is led by Powell, and changing the chair does not guarantee a shift in monetary policy direction [9][10]. Group 4: Implications of a New Chair - A new chair would still need to persuade the FOMC members to support any interest rate changes, as the committee consists of 12 voting members [10]. - If a new chair were to act as a mouthpiece for Trump, it could undermine their professional reputation and the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][11].