【金十期货热图】两个月不到，焦煤期货已拉升近50%！从大跌到大涨，焦煤市场经历了哪些关键转折点？一图了解。

Group 1 - The market sentiment for coking coal has rapidly declined due to the disappointment in real estate policy expectations, leading to significant price drops in the black coal sector [1] - In early 2025, domestic coking coal production is expected to rebound post-two sessions, while the eleventh round of price reductions for downstream coke will exacerbate losses for coking enterprises [2] - Environmental production restrictions have been initiated, causing a decline in coal mine operating rates in regions like Shanxi and Luliang due to environmental inspections [2] Group 2 - By late 2024, the supply side is expected to see a surge in mining operating rates, but autumn and winter production restrictions have yet to be implemented, resulting in record-high upstream inventories [4] - The slow progress in winter storage for both coking coal and coke, along with a noticeable increase in auction failure rates for coking coal, indicates weak demand for high-priced resources [4] - In June 2025, the rainy season in Mongolia is impacting coal shipments, leading to low port inventories and a contraction in imports [5] Group 3 - The government has reiterated the theme of "anti-involution," raising expectations for supply-side policy adjustments, while the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan has led to a rapid recovery in steel production [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced ten key industry growth stabilization plans, including measures to eliminate outdated capacity and optimize profit distribution [6] Group 4 - The current spot market fundamentals are improving, with a recovery in basis and ongoing demand for hedging from spot traders, suggesting that spot prices will continue to rise alongside downstream restocking efforts [7]