政治重压之下鲍威尔即将发表讲话 美债终结四连涨

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to end a four-day rise, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 1 basis point to 4.39%, partially reversing a 10 basis point decline since the weak June PPI data was released [1] - The 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 2 basis points, reaching 4.95% and 4.96% respectively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at a regulatory meeting focused on large bank capital frameworks, with his remarks likely to address Basel III final rules, stress tests, and capital requirements [4] - Powell faces increasing pressure from former President Trump and Republican lawmakers regarding the Fed's renovation costs, which has drawn significant attention from traders and investors [4] - The potential for Powell's removal has led investors to bet on a steepening yield curve, with Deutsche Bank strategists predicting that if Trump moves to dismiss Powell, the 30-year Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points [5] Group 3 - Following reports of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, a macro trading alert was issued, suggesting a strategy of buying 2-year Treasuries while selling 10-year Treasuries, based on expectations of a more dovish new Fed chair [5] - This trading strategy is seen as a hedge against the risk of Trump attempting to remove Powell, with expectations that a weakened Fed independence could raise long-term inflation expectations and thus long-term bond yields [5]