好于市场预期！我国外汇市场展现韧性和活力

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amidst complex and volatile external conditions, maintaining stability and demonstrating strong performance in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments has steadily increased, with a total of $7.6 trillion in cross-border income and expenditure, marking a 10.4% year-on-year growth, the highest for the same period historically [2] - There has been a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend of net inflows since the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [2] - The foreign exchange market has maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with a total deficit of $25.3 billion in bank foreign exchange transactions, showing significant monthly fluctuations [2] Group 2: Currency Stability and Market Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, which has helped stabilize the macro economy and international payments [4] - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated, reflecting rational trading behavior among market participants [4] - The international balance of payments has remained fundamentally balanced, with direct investment inflows into China showing a 16% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Attractiveness of RMB Assets - The scale of foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has risen, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, indicating a historically high level of interest [5] - Foreign investors have net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions, with significant increases noted in May and June [5] - The demand for diversified global asset allocation has created favorable conditions for foreign investment in China, with 30% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to increase their allocation to RMB assets [7]