Earnings Preview: Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Company Overview - Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is expected to report earnings for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus estimate of $2.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.1% [3] - The anticipated revenue for Arch Capital is $4.65 billion, which represents an 18% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on July 29, and the stock price may increase if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.05% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - Arch Capital has an Earnings ESP of -1.22%, suggesting that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which further indicates uncertainty regarding the likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Arch Capital had an earnings surprise of +12.41%, with actual earnings of $1.54 per share compared to an expected $1.37 [13] - Over the past four quarters, Arch Capital has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates each time [14] Industry Context - In the broader insurance industry, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is expected to report earnings of $4.41 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.6% [18] - Kinsale Capital's revenue is projected to be $434.01 million, up 12.9% from the previous year, and it has an Earnings ESP of +1.07%, indicating a higher likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19][20]