Servicing Revenues Slump Looms, Can Rithm Capital Still Deliver in Q2?

Core Viewpoint - Rithm Capital Corp. is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 28, 2025, with an estimated earnings of 51 cents per share and revenues of $1.25 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase in earnings but a slight revenue growth [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The second-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by one cent over the past 60 days, but it still indicates an 8.5% year-over-year increase [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 1.6% year-over-year rise [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $4.56 billion, which represents a 12.9% year-over-year decrease [3]. Recent Performance - Rithm Capital has consistently beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.6% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of -2.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Results - The diversified platform strength and strategic partnerships are expected to support second-quarter results, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year growth in interest income [5]. - The profitability of the Newrez business is likely to benefit the Origination & Servicing segment, with a projected 27.7% year-over-year increase in net gain on originated residential mortgage loans [7]. Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for asset management revenues is $100.19 million, down 8.4% year over year [9]. - The consensus estimate for net servicing revenues is $425.3 million, indicating a 1.3% year-over-year decline [9]. - Other revenues are projected to decline by 35.5% year over year [9].