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2025上半年外汇市场传来新信号:跨境收支平衡 人民币结算创新高
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao·2025-07-22 16:07

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is showing signs of stability and growth, with a significant increase in cross-border payments and a notable rise in the use of the Renminbi for international transactions [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Characteristics - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments has steadily increased, reaching a total of $7.6 trillion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with the Renminbi accounting for 53% of this total [2][4]. - There has been a continued net inflow of cross-border funds, amounting to $127.3 billion in the first half of 2025, with a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter [2][3]. - The foreign exchange market is generally balanced, with a bank settlement deficit of $25.3 billion in the first half, but showing a shift to surplus in May and June [3]. Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - The trading volume in the domestic Renminbi foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion by the end of June 2025, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024, indicating a stable reserve position [3]. - The willingness to settle foreign exchange transactions has increased, with bank settlements in June 2025 amounting to 14.9 billion Renminbi, while the total for the first half reached 82.135 billion Renminbi [5][6]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment Insights - The data on bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments indicates a healthy cross-border capital flow, with total receipts of 46.485 billion Renminbi and payments of 44.667 billion Renminbi in June 2025 [5][6]. - The increase in foreign currency income from bank customer transactions suggests a growing inclination to settle in Renminbi, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards the currency [8]. - The net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a trend of net outflows observed in the previous two years [8].