Will Nasdaq Pull Off a Surprise This Earnings Season?

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with revenues expected to reach $1.28 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [1]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings is set at 80 cents per share, indicating a 15.9% increase year-over-year, although this estimate has decreased by 1.3% in the past 30 days [2]. - Nasdaq has an Earnings ESP of +0.47%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at 81 cents, suggesting a potential earnings beat [4]. Factors Influencing Performance - Continued organic revenue growth, new sales, and increased revenues from Financial Crime Management Technology are expected to positively impact Nasdaq's second-quarter performance [5]. - Non-trading revenues are likely to benefit from improved results in Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services businesses [5]. Segment Performance - Capital Markets Technology revenues are projected to rise by 13.7% to $293.2 million, driven by higher subscription revenues and new client acquisitions [6]. - The Capital Access Platforms division is expected to see growth due to increased trading volumes and higher average AUM in exchange-traded products linked to Nasdaq indices [7]. Expense Outlook - Total expenses are anticipated to rise, with non-GAAP operating expenses expected to increase by 7.5% year-over-year due to higher professional and contract services expenses, among other factors [8]. Trading Volumes - Nasdaq reported a 23.3% year-over-year increase in U.S. equity options volume, totaling 957 million contracts, and a 3.3% increase in European options and futures volume [11]. - U.S. matched equity volume reached 158.2 billion shares, up 32.6% from the previous year, while European equity volume increased by 18% to $243 billion [12]. Listing Services - The total number of listings increased by 3.5% year-over-year to 5,386, although the number of listed companies decreased slightly from the previous year [12]. - Data and listing services revenues are expected to rise by 1.5% to $189.7 million in the upcoming quarter [12].